{"id":1351,"date":"2025-02-24T14:30:26","date_gmt":"2025-02-24T17:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aceroyroca.com\/?p=1351"},"modified":"2025-02-24T14:30:26","modified_gmt":"2025-02-24T17:30:26","slug":"la-explosion-del-cobre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/idealistic-platinum-hummingbird.187-127-10-185.cpanel.site\/index.php\/2025\/02\/24\/la-explosion-del-cobre\/","title":{"rendered":"LA EXPLOSI\u00d3N DEL COBRE"},"content":{"rendered":"

El cobre estalla en San Juan, boom minero, inversiones colosales y caos laboral a la vista.\u00a0<\/strong>Se espera que en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os el auge de proyectos mineros, especialmente de cobre, transforme radicalmente la econom\u00eda y el mercado laboral en San Juan, generando oportunidades sin precedentes, pero tambi\u00e9n desaf\u00edos que podr\u00edan desestabilizar la provincia.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Por Lucas Laciar<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\"pastedGraphic_1.png\"<\/p>\n

San Juan se prepara para vivir una transformaci\u00f3n sin precedentes. La provincia, reconocida por su pujante desarrollo minero, est\u00e1 al borde de un boom impulsado por proyectos de cobre que prometen inversiones colosales. Sin embargo, este crecimiento acelerado no s\u00f3lo encender\u00e1 motores econ\u00f3micos, sino que pondr\u00e1 a prueba la capacidad de la regi\u00f3n para enfrentar desaf\u00edos como la escasez de mano de obra, la inflaci\u00f3n y un profundo impacto social. En este contexto, el economista sanjuanino Eduardo Coria Lahoz, en di\u00e1logo con Acero y Roca<\/strong><\/em>, analiza cada aspecto de este fen\u00f3meno.<\/p>\n

Inversi\u00f3n colosal que redefine la econom\u00eda<\/b><\/p>\n

El desarrollo de nuevos proyectos mineros promete transformar radicalmente la econom\u00eda provincial.
\nSeg\u00fan el economista, \u201cel impacto que va a tener la miner\u00eda, fundamentalmente de cobre, sobre la econom\u00eda <\/i>ser\u00e1 may\u00fasculo<\/i>. Cuando Barrick lleg\u00f3 a San Juan y comenz\u00f3 su proceso de inversi\u00f3n, la cifra fue cercana a los <\/i>3.000 millones de d\u00f3lares<\/i>. En aquel entonces, conseguir alquilar una camioneta o encontrar un t\u00e9cnico era casi imposible, ya <\/i>que la demanda absorb\u00eda casi toda la oferta laboral calificada<\/i>. Hoy, se hablan de 8 a 10 proyectos, mayormente de cobre, con una inversi\u00f3n prevista de <\/i>unos 20.000 millones de d\u00f3lares<\/i>;<\/i><\/b> es un fen\u00f3meno que ser\u00e1 siete veces mayor que lo que ocurri\u00f3 hace menos de 20 a\u00f1os.\u201d<\/i>
\nPara Coria Lahoz, esta afirmaci\u00f3n resalta la magnitud del cambio que se avecina, posicionando a San Juan en un nuevo escenario econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n

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El economista sanjuanino Eduardo Coria Lahoz, en di\u00e1logo con Acero y Roca<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00bfSer\u00e1 San Juan la Dubai de Argentina?<\/b><\/p>\n

Una comparaci\u00f3n audaz sobre el futuro de San Juan.
\nSeg\u00fan el economista, \u201cno s\u00e9 si San Juan se convertir\u00e1 en la ‘Dubai argentina’, ya que existen profundas diferencias en el r\u00e9gimen social y pol\u00edtico. Sin embargo, se transformar\u00e1 en una meca para la producci\u00f3n de cobre, con las principales y m\u00e1s grandes empresas mineras del mundo esperando el momento oportuno para arrancar.\u201d<\/i>
\nEsta analog\u00eda destaca tanto las oportunidades como los desaf\u00edos estructurales.<\/p>\n

Mercado laboral en llamas<\/b><\/p>\n

El crecimiento de la industria minera revoluciona el mercado laboral en la provincia.
\nSeg\u00fan el especialista, \u201cla sumatoria de todos estos proyectos impactar\u00e1 fuertemente en el mercado laboral y en la oferta de servicios, equipos y log\u00edstica, generando un efecto tremendo en la econom\u00eda provincial.\u201d<\/i>
\nEsta explosi\u00f3n en la demanda exige una r\u00e1pida adaptaci\u00f3n en contrataci\u00f3n y capacitaci\u00f3n en todos los sectores.<\/p>\n

Migraci\u00f3n laboral masiva<\/b><\/p>\n

El panorama laboral para Coria Lahoz es claro: \u201c<\/i>San Juan no tiene la cantidad de recursos humanos necesarios para llevar adelante todos estos proyectos<\/i>. Con cinco de los proyectos de cobre m\u00e1s grandes del mundo desarroll\u00e1ndose simult\u00e1neamente, la demanda de mano de obra, materiales y capital se disparar\u00e1\u201d.<\/i><\/i><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

La inflaci\u00f3n minera<\/b><\/p>\n

El economista advierte que todo este desarrollo generar\u00e1 un fen\u00f3meno del cual Argentina viene saliendo: La inflaci\u00f3n.\u00a0 <\/span>\u201c<\/i>Obvio que subir\u00e1n los precios<\/i>: alquileres, rem\u00eds, fletes, etc\u201d. <\/i>Pero recalca \u201cToda la econom\u00eda se va a inflacionar<\/i>, pero a su vez, como contrapartida, va a haber <\/i>un aumento notable del nivel de ingresos promedio <\/i>de la econom\u00eda. Hoy la econom\u00eda de San Juan tiene un nivel de salario promedio que est\u00e1 en torno de los <\/i>1000 d\u00f3lares y vos pens\u00e1s que de ac\u00e1 a 3 a\u00f1os m\u00e1s vamos a estar en un salario promedio que de m\u00ednimo va a ser el triple\u201d<\/i>.<\/p>\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 con los que no trabajan para la miner\u00eda cuando haya inflaci\u00f3n?<\/b><\/p>\n

El crecimiento del sector minero tendr\u00e1 repercusiones en todos los \u00e1mbitos de la econom\u00eda.
\nEl economista explica, \u201cesto impactar\u00e1 en toda la econom\u00eda: a los docentes se les aumentar\u00e1 el sueldo para evitar la fuga hacia la miner\u00eda, y lo mismo ocurrir\u00e1 con alba\u00f1iles, plomeros y otros profesionales. La demanda concentrada har\u00e1 escasos los recursos humanos y de capital.\u201d<\/i>
\nEste efecto domin\u00f3 obligar\u00e1 a una reestructuraci\u00f3n general en sectores como la educaci\u00f3n, la construcci\u00f3n y los servicios.<\/p>\n

Cu\u00e1ndo podr\u00eda darse el tan esperado boom minero<\/b><\/p>\n

\"pastedGraphic_3.png\"<\/p>\n

El ritmo de implementaci\u00f3n de estos proyectos es acelerado.
\nSeg\u00fan el economista, \u201cen los pr\u00f3ximos tres a\u00f1os se desarrollar\u00e1n las declaraciones de impacto ambiental; hacia finales de 2025, tras el invierno, arrancar\u00e1n los primeros proyectos, y en el primer trimestre de 2026 se sumar\u00e1n otros. En 12 a 18 meses, casi todos estar\u00e1n en producci\u00f3n.\u201d<\/i>
\nEste cronograma deja claro que la transformaci\u00f3n del paisaje econ\u00f3mico y laboral se dar\u00e1 en el corto plazo.<\/p>\n

\u00bfCu\u00e1l fue el impacto del RIGI para que se de esta situaci\u00f3n?<\/b><\/p>\n

El entorno regulatorio es clave para la viabilidad de estas inversiones.
\nPara Coria Lahoz, \u201cel RIGI es una herramienta para eliminar trabas burocr\u00e1ticas e impositivas, situando a Argentina en condiciones similares a pa\u00edses como Chile, Uruguay o Brasil, donde la presi\u00f3n tributaria es mucho menor.\u201d<\/i>
\nEsta medida nivelar\u00e1 las condiciones para que San Juan compita internacionalmente en el sector minero.<\/p>\n

Para estar atento<\/b><\/p>\n

La llegada simult\u00e1nea de proyectos mineros de envergadura en San Juan se vislumbra como un cambio s\u00edsmico en la econom\u00eda provincial. Aunque el boom abre un abanico de oportunidades, tambi\u00e9n plantea serios desaf\u00edos: inflaci\u00f3n, escasez de mano de obra y un efecto domin\u00f3 en sectores tradicionales. La implementaci\u00f3n de medidas como el RIGI y la estabilidad pol\u00edtica ser\u00e1n cruciales para que este auge se traduzca en un desarrollo sostenible y equitativo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El cobre estalla en San Juan, boom minero, inversiones colosales y caos laboral a la vista.\u00a0Se espera que en los 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