{"id":13445,"date":"2025-12-29T00:01:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T03:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aceroyroca.com\/?p=13445"},"modified":"2025-12-29T00:01:40","modified_gmt":"2025-12-29T03:01:40","slug":"inversion-minera-2036-argentina-chile-claudio-valencia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/idealistic-platinum-hummingbird.187-127-10-185.cpanel.site\/index.php\/2025\/12\/29\/inversion-minera-2036-argentina-chile-claudio-valencia\/","title":{"rendered":"De la exploraci\u00f3n a la realidad: los filtros que definir\u00e1n la inversi\u00f3n minera 2036"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Por
Por Yenhy Navas<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

La proyecci\u00f3n de la actividad minera en la regi\u00f3n andina hacia el a\u00f1o 2036 presenta un escenario de grandes oportunidades, pero tambi\u00e9n de filtros decisivos que determinar\u00e1n qu\u00e9 iniciativas lograr\u00e1n convertirse en minas operativas. Claudio Valencia Montero, Director Ejecutivo Quartile Mining<\/i>, analiza la cartera de proyectos y advierte que las cifras macroecon\u00f3micas pueden ser enga\u00f1osas si no se examina la madurez real de los activos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

info@aceroyroca.com<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Proyecto
Los desaf\u00edos log\u00edsticos en alta monta\u00f1a definen el \u00e9xito de la inversi\u00f3n minera 2036. Imagen ilustrativa de ACERO Y ROCA<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Seg\u00fan el experto, la comparaci\u00f3n directa entre Argentina y Chile<\/strong><\/a> suele derivar en interpretaciones simplificadas que no resisten un an\u00e1lisis de valorizaci\u00f3n de activos m\u00e1s profundo<\/b>. Por lo tanto, para entender el potencial real del sector, resulta indispensable desglosar los datos m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del volumen aparente de proyectos.<\/p>\n

Comparativa de inversi\u00f3n: Realidad de la inversi\u00f3n minera en Argentina y Chile<\/b><\/h2>\n
\"Imagen
\u00a0La gran mayor\u00eda de las iniciativas argentinas se concentra en exploraci\u00f3n y prospecci\u00f3n. En Chile, una mayor proporci\u00f3n se sit\u00faa en evaluaci\u00f3n avanzada y ejecuci\u00f3n efectiva, lo que mejora las inversiones. Imagen ilustrativa de ACERO Y ROCA<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A primera vista, Argentina muestra una vitalidad sorprendente<\/strong>. El pa\u00eds presenta un n\u00famero de proyectos mineros comparable al de Chile, e incluso la cifra resulta superior cuando se observa el universo completo de la actividad. Sin embargo, al analizar el capital involucrado, la diferencia es dr\u00e1stica: mientras la cartera chilena proyecta una inversi\u00f3n superior a los US$ 115.000 millones<\/b>, los proyectos argentinos suman cerca de US$ 35.000 millones<\/b>.<\/p>\n

\u00bfA qu\u00e9 responde esta brecha si el potencial geol\u00f3gico es evidente? Valencia<\/a> aclara que Argentina cuenta con una base de activos interesante desde el punto de vista exploratorio. No obstante, la disparidad financiera se explica fundamentalmente por el grado de madurez econ\u00f3mica y la probabilidad efectiva de que ese capital (CAPEX) se materialice<\/b>.<\/p>\n

\"Retrato
Claudio Valencia Montero advierte sobre la necesidad de madurar la cartera de activos. <\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Etapas de desarrollo para la inversi\u00f3n minera 2036<\/h3>\n

El factor central de esta ecuaci\u00f3n es que solo una fracci\u00f3n reducida de los proyectos argentinos se encuentra en etapas realmente invertibles<\/b>. Los datos duros de la cartera revelan una pir\u00e1mide invertida:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • En construcci\u00f3n:<\/b> Apenas 7 proyectos activos.<\/li>\n
  • Factibilidad:<\/b> 9 proyectos avanzados.<\/li>\n
  • Prefactibilidad:<\/b> 6 proyectos en estudio.<\/li>\n
  • Evaluaci\u00f3n Econ\u00f3mica Preliminar (PEA):<\/b> 8 proyectos iniciales.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    \n

    La gran mayor\u00eda de las iniciativas locales se concentra en exploraci\u00f3n y prospecci\u00f3n, fases que a\u00fan no cuentan con estimaci\u00f3n de cifras de inversi\u00f3n. En Chile, una mayor proporci\u00f3n del portafolio se sit\u00faa en evaluaci\u00f3n avanzada y ejecuci\u00f3n efectiva.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

    Permisos y licencia social como filtros de ejecuci\u00f3n<\/h2>\n

    M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de las carpetas de proyectos, el desaf\u00edo hacia 2036 no es la falta de capital. Desde la inteligencia competitiva, el reto real es la capacidad de avanzar \u00abdesde el PowerPoint hacia la ejecuci\u00f3n<\/em>\u00ab.<\/p>\n

    Existe el mito de que faltan inversores. En realidad, en la regi\u00f3n andina<\/strong> el financiamiento rara vez es el primer filtro<\/b>. El dinero existe y est\u00e1 dispuesto a entrar, pero lo hace de manera condicionada: si los riesgos no est\u00e1n acotados, el financiamiento se posterga o se encarece<\/strong>, transform\u00e1ndose m\u00e1s en un reflejo del riesgo que en su causa.<\/p>\n

    \"Reuni\u00f3n
    El di\u00e1logo con las comunidades es el filtro m\u00e1s cr\u00edtico para la inversi\u00f3n minera 2036. Imagen ilustrativa de ACERO Y ROCA<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
    \n

    En consecuencia, el filtro m\u00e1s cr\u00edtico hoy es el sistema de permisos, especialmente cuando se combina con una licencia social inestable.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

    La incertidumbre regulatoria como barrera<\/b><\/h2>\n

    Los procesos de aprobaci\u00f3n se han vuelto largos e impredecibles<\/strong>, lo cual introduce un riesgo significativo en los cronogramas y en el costo final de los proyectos. A su vez, la licencia social ya no funciona como un tr\u00e1mite \u00fanico; es un proceso continuo que puede reabrirse en distintas etapas<\/b>, incluso despu\u00e9s de obtenidos los permisos formales.<\/p>\n

    Esta incertidumbre genera retrasos y sobrecostos que erosionan la viabilidad econ\u00f3mica antes de la decisi\u00f3n de inversi\u00f3n. Valencia advierte que muchos proyectos quedan en el camino no por razones t\u00e9cnicas, sino por la imposibilidad de convertir permisos y aceptaci\u00f3n social en certidumbre<\/b>. Aquellos que permanecen demasiado tiempo en esta zona gris pierden prioridad estrat\u00e9gica y terminan archivados.<\/p>\n

    Viabilidad de un cl\u00faster de proveedores en la regi\u00f3n andina<\/h2>\n

    Finalmente, el an\u00e1lisis aborda la oportunidad para la cadena de valor. Respecto a la consolidaci\u00f3n de un \u00abcl\u00faster andino<\/em>\u00bb de proveedores entre Chile, Per\u00fa y Argentina<\/strong>, Valencia considera que es econ\u00f3micamente viable, pero no como un mercado \u00fanico en el corto plazo.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Aunque existen incentivos naturales por la presencia de operadores comunes en los tres pa\u00edses, las asimetr\u00edas regulatorias, laborales y tributarias siguen siendo significativas<\/b>. Por este motivo, es probable que los proveedores con mayor capacidad de internacionalizaci\u00f3n provengan inicialmente de Chile, dado su mayor grado de madurez minera y experiencia exportadora.<\/p>\n

    Lo razonable es esperar una integraci\u00f3n selectiva y por especialidades<\/b>. En este escenario, los proveedores chilenos podr\u00edan liderar la expansi\u00f3n, complementados progresivamente por actores peruanos y argentinos.<\/p>\n

    Los servicios con mayor potencial para cruzar fronteras son aquellos de alto valor agregado y portabilidad<\/b>:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Ingenier\u00eda y gesti\u00f3n de proyectos.<\/li>\n
    • Estudios econ\u00f3micos.<\/li>\n
    • Tecnolog\u00edas digitales y puesta en marcha.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \"Equipos
      La fase de exploraci\u00f3n en valles \u00e1ridos es el motor inicial del potencial argentino. Imagen ilustrativa de ACERO Y ROCA<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

      En definitiva, m\u00e1s que un bloque monol\u00edtico, hacia 2036<\/strong> se consolidar\u00e1 un ecosistema regional articulado por nichos de conocimiento, que crecer\u00e1 a medida que los proyectos avancen hacia la construcci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      La proyecci\u00f3n de la actividad minera en la regi\u00f3n andina hacia el a\u00f1o 2036 presenta un escenario de grandes oportunidades, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":13453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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